With the Federal Government about to launch its latest energy policy, anthropogenic climate change is again in the news.The key issue is whether human caused climate change, driven by carbon dioxide emissions and the like, is of such magnitude that strong action, such as that called for in the Paris agreement, is necessary.
What is clear is that electricity prices have exploded in recent years and will continue to increase, partly due to Government policies promoting the use of renewables (solar and wind) at the expense of coal fired power stations. At the present state of technology, the conflicts within policy that requires compromises between supplying electricity continually, at low cost and with low emissions, creates a real dilemma. The question needs to be addressed as to whether emissions are really a problem. If they are not, then generating low cost, reliable energy is a much less difficult challenge and has real economic benefits, particularly for the developing world.
The global warming hypothesis, based on extensive modelling, suggests that temperature increases, sea level rises and more extreme climatic events will be at alarming levels. There is considerable consistency between the models.
If we study the literature, seek the truth and adopt a rational scientific method approach, it would seem that there is substantial room for debate.
Whilst the models may be relatively consistent between themselves, key elements (temperatures, sea levels and climatic events) are widely over stated when tested against observations, the central measure in applying the scientific method. Hypotheses that cannot be supported by real world observations are invalid.
It could now be argued that those pushing the climate change hypothesis and ignoring observations, have replaced the “sceptics” as the true “deniers”.